Economics at a Glance – Toronto / Ontario/ Canada – Updated: April 30 2026
Here is a breakdown of economic, financial, and housing market news for Toronto, Ontario, and Canada, including neighbourhood-specific breakdowns for downtown real estate.
1. National Economy: Canada
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy
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BoC Rate Hold: The Bank of Canada held its benchmark policy rate at 2.25%, following a cycle of decreases that began in 2024.
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Outlook: Markets price in a 95% probability of continued stability over the coming months as the central bank monitors geopolitical inflation risks.
Inflation and Global Headwinds
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CPI Acceleration: Headline inflation climbed to 2.4% in March 2026, up from 1.8% the previous month. This jump is largely attributed to a 21% surge in gasoline prices due to the conflict in the Middle East and global oil supply disruptions.
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Projections: Inflation is projected to peak around 3% in the spring before gradually easing back to the 2% target by early 2027, provided that oil prices moderate and U.S. tariff structures remain unchanged.
GDP and Trade
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2026 Growth Projections: The Canadian economy is forecast to grow by 1.2% in 2026, before rising to 1.6% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028.
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Trade Uncertainties: U.S. protectionism and trade frictions are weighing heavily on business investment and Canadian exports. Domestic consumer and government spending are providing the main support for modest economic expansion.
2. Provincial Economy & Housing Market: Ontario
Housing Demand and Inventory
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Subdued Activity: High carrying costs, elevated price-to-income ratios, and lingering job uncertainty continue to keep buyers on the sidelines. According to TD Economics, Ontario and British Columbia have experienced the sharpest downgrades in sales and price growth following first-quarter losses.
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Price Declines: While the rest of the country is seeing some stabilization, home prices in Ontario are expected to dip further in 2026, particularly in expensive urban centers, due to high inventory and pre-construction supply that needs to be absorbed.
Housing Starts and Construction
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Construction Slowdown: Housing starts in Ontario are projected to drop to near 2-decade lows in 2026. Developers are facing high construction costs and weak pre-construction sales, particularly in the condominium sector.
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Shift to Completions: Developers are prioritizing the completion of projects already underway rather than initiating new multi-family or condominium projects.
3. Municipal Economy & Housing Market: Toronto
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) Real Estate
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2026 Market Outlook: TRREB’s annual market outlook highlights improved buyer choice and affordability brought on by elevated inventory levels.
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Sales Volume: Expected to range between 60,000 and 70,000 transactions in 2026, similar to the softer levels seen in recent years.
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Average Prices: Forecasted between $1.0 million and $1.03 million for the year, with a significant amount of negotiating power favoring buyers in the condominium apartment sector.
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Affordability and Rent: Strong demand remains in the purpose-built rental market as newcomer households and first-time buyers build up savings to navigate higher costs of living.
City of Toronto Budget 2026
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Tax and Financial Sustainability: The finalized 2026 City of Toronto budget limits the combined residential property tax and City Building Fund levy increase to 2.2% (equating to roughly $91.53 annually for a home assessed at $692,140).
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Affordability Measures: * The budget maintains a 15% property tax discount for new multi-residential and purpose-built rental housing.
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The property tax reduction for small businesses was increased to 20%, supporting local job stability.
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4. Key Economic Indicator Summary
5. Supplementary Cost of Living Indicators
6. Downtown Toronto Housing Prices by Neighbourhood
The table below provides a representative price summary of typical housing units (condominium apartments and freehold properties, including semi-detached and detached homes) located across central Downtown TRREB districts C01 and C08 for the current period.
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